According to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam’s economy recorded positive growth in the second quarter of 2026, with GDP expanding by 8.39% – 0.25 percentage points higher than the same period in 2025. In the first six months of 2026, GDP grew by 8.18%, up from 7.63% in the same period last year. This is considered an impressive growth performance, especially as the global economy continues to face uncertainty and mounting risks.
However, achieving double-digit growth in the second half of the year will require Vietnam to overcome far greater challenges. Experts warn that the country will face mounting pressure from trade deficits, inflation risks, and the pace of public investment disbursement, amid geopolitical uncertainties worldwide.
GDP Grew By 8.39% In Q2 and 8.18% In The First Half
GDP growth in Q2 2026 and the first half of the year was largely driven by sustained growth across all sectors.
The industry and construction sector maintained positive momentum. The sector’s value added increased by 9.86% year-on-year in the first half of the year, contributing 40.35% to the overall growth in the economy’s total value added.
Accordingly, the manufacturing and processing industry emerged as the economy’s key growth engine, expanding by 10.23% and contributing 33.07% to overall growth. The sector has maintained solid momentum since the first quarter, signalling a recovery in production activity and domestic supply capacity. Robust export activity has also provided a strong foundation for domestic manufacturing.
Public investment emerged as a key leading growth driver in the second quarter, with disbursement reaching approximately VND 137.6 trillion (around US$5.2 billion) in June – the highest level since the beginning of the year and nearly four times higher than in April. Accelerated disbursement in the second quarter not only directly supported growth in construction and related industries but also generated a “pull” effect on private-sector investment, improving production capacity and infrastructure connectivity in the medium and long term.
Meanwhile, the services sector, including trade and transportation, recorded solid growth, driven by stronger consumer demand and increased activity in goods circulation and travel. The sector’s value added rose 8.09% compared with the same period last year.
The agricultural sector, meanwhile, maintained stable growth, with agricultural export markets continuing to expand. The sector’s value added increased by 3.57% year-on-year.
The average Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the second quarter rose 5.25% year-on-year. Domestic demand showed signs of improvement, supported by seasonal factors and rising demand for services, particularly tourism, accommodation, and entertainment. At the same time, consumption patterns are shifting toward a higher share of services and higher value-added products, reflecting changing consumer behaviour and contributing to Vietnam’s deeper economic restructuring.
Strong Growth Comes With Rising Pressures
This performance indicates that the economy is continuing to recover, as well as reflecting significant efforts in economic management and the resilience of businesses and the broader economy in overcoming challenges.
However, according to Associate Professor Dr Trần Thế Đông, an expert at the Ministry of Finance, this positive growth momentum comes with ongoing pressures. These challenges require economic management in the second half of the year to accelerate selectively without compromising macroeconomic stability.
In the first six months of 2026, Vietnam recorded a merchandise trade deficit of US$16.65 billion, compared with a trade surplus of US$10.18 billion in the same period last year. The sharp increase in imports reflects rising demand for raw materials, machinery, and components to support expanding production. However, it also highlights the economy’s continued heavy reliance on external inputs, particularly electronic components, machinery, raw materials, petroleum products, chemicals, and metals. Experts warn that this poses significant risks to the trade balance, exchange rates, and the domestic manufacturing sector’s ability to strengthen self-reliance.
Despite recording strong growth momentum in Q2 2026, public investment disbursement has yet to meet expectations. As of June 30, 2026, total disbursement nationwide reached VND 356.9 trillion (US$13,57 billion)., equivalent to 35.5% of the annual target assigned by the Prime Minister. While some ministries, central agencies, and localities have achieved disbursement rates above the national average, 25 central-level agencies and 11 localities remain below the average pace.
Bottlenecks related to administrative procedures, land clearance, construction materials, project implementation capacity, and coordination across government levels continue to slow capital flows into the economy. Dr Trần Thế Đông said that without clear progress in the third quarter of 2026, public investment may struggle to play its role as a “seed capital” for growth in the second half of the year.
In addition, inflation risks will require close monitoring as consumer prices continue to rise, particularly with the cost of raw materials, fuel, and production inputs increasing by 5.40%. This indicates that cost pressures could continue to be passed through to consumer prices in the final months of the year.
Meanwhile, Vietnam’s reliance on FDI, along with persistent geopolitical risks around the world, also underscores the need for more cautious policy measures to sustain economic development while achieving its growth targets.
Can Vietnam Achieve Double-digit Growth By The End Of The Year?
Associate Professor Dr Trần Thế Đông assessed that achieving double-digit growth remains a highly ambitious scenario. While the target is feasible and worth pursuing, it would require exceptional growth momentum in the second half of the year, without sacrificing macroeconomic stability for short-term expansion.
To reach the 10% growth target, Dr. Đông estimated that Vietnam’s GDP would need to expand by around 11.5–12.5% in the second half of the year. This would only be possible if several highly favourable conditions happen at the same time: public investment accelerates significantly and achieves a high disbursement rate; the manufacturing and processing sector maintains strong and sustained growth; exports remain resilient amid trade and geopolitical risks; domestic demand strengthens without creating excessive inflationary pressure; financial and monetary markets remain stable; and businesses can effectively absorb credit and expand production.
“Double-digit growth can only be achieved under a breakthrough scenario, in which these growth drivers accelerate simultaneously and external risks are proactively managed,” he told VnEconomy.
From another perspective, Dr. Nguyễn Văn Điển, Head of the Faculty of Political Economy at the Ho Chi Minh National Academy of Politics Region II, said that growth potential in the final two quarters of the year remains significant.
“I still see a positive scenario. At this point, the task is to raise the contribution of each sector slightly, with many factors and incremental improvements coming together to create a major step forward. Double-digit growth should not be viewed as pressure placed on any single agency, ministry, sector, or locality. Instead, it is about breaking down this ambition into smaller, achievable targets that everyone can contribute to. For example, how much exports and imports can increase, how much investment can rise, and how much consumption can grow — when these factors work together, they will ultimately lift GDP,” he told Thanh Niên.
The 10% annual growth target remains within Vietnam’s sights, with the government aiming for 11.9% growth in the second half of the year. However, achieving this goal will require more than policy direction or increased investment alone. It will depend on the combined strength of multiple economic drivers, effective implementation, and resilience in the less favourable global environment.
