Vietnam’s Declining Birth Rate: The Growing Disparities and Future Challenges

Vietnam is witnessing a notable dip in birth rates, a shift that stirs concerns about the nation's future demographic landscape and economic stability. Education, wealth, and urbanization are key players in this trend, deeply shaping the birth rate patterns.

As the country braces for an aging population, experts predict potential labor shortages and escalating costs in social services and healthcare, reminiscent of challenges encountered in Japan and Korea.

The Disparities In Birth Rates

According to the 2019 Population and Housing Census, The higher the educational level of women, the lower the fertility rate, from 2.35 children per woman among those with less than a primary education to 1.98 for those with more than a high school education. Moreover, women in the poorest households have the highest fertility rate (2.4 children per woman), while those in the wealthiest have the lowest (2 children per woman).

The data clearly shows how access to education and economic stability affects family planning. Higher education and improved financial circumstances often coincide with later marriages and fewer children, particularly in urban areas where career opportunities and lifestyle choices take precedence over larger families.

Urbanization And Its Impact On Birth Rates

Urbanization has also contributed to the sharp decline in birth rates, especially in major cities like Ho Chi Minh City, where the fertility rate has dropped to 1.32 children per woman. This is far below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, which is essential to sustain a population. Urban women, generally more educated and financially secure, tend to delay childbirth and have fewer children compared to rural women.

According to statistics, urban women aged 25-29 have the highest birth rates, with 127 births per 1,000 women, while rural women aged 20-24 experience a slightly higher birth rate of 147 per 1,000 women. The preference for smaller families in cities stems from a combination of factors, including the higher cost of living, the desire for lifestyle enjoyment, and the challenges of balancing work and family life in a fast-paced urban environment.

“For over 20 years, urban birth rates have remained below replacement levels,” says Pham Vu Hoang, deputy director of the General Department of Population. Hoang attributes this to the increased education levels and improved living conditions in cities, where individuals often prioritize personal freedom, career development, and financial stability over expanding their families.

Implications for Vietnam’s Future

Vietnam reached replacement-level fertility in 2006, with a total fertility rate of 2.09 children per woman. Since then, the birth rate has dropped to 1.96 children per woman and is expected to continue decreasing. Experts caution that prolonged low birth rates could pose significant demographic challenges.

As the population ages, Vietnam could see rising costs associated with social services, healthcare, and welfare, coupled with a diminishing workforce. If this trend persists, Vietnam might begin to see negative population growth within the next 35 years. By 2069, it is projected that there will be three elderly people for every two children, increasing pressure on social services and economic resources.

Vietnam faces the possibility of encountering similar challenges to Japan, where low fertility rates and an aging population have contributed to economic stagnation, labor shortages, and escalating costs for elderly care. To address these issues, Vietnam needs long-term, sustainable development policies that promote childbearing and support families.

Shifting Policy: Encouraging Childbearing And Work-Life Balance

In light of these challenges, policymakers are beginning to reconsider Vietnam’s approach to population control. For decades, the government has promoted smaller families as a way to support economic growth and alleviate poverty. However, experts argue that the current context calls for a shift in focus.

Professor Nguyen Thien Nhan, a member of the 15th National Assembly, has proposed policies that would support families in having two children.

His recommendations include moving away from a minimum wage policy to a living wage that is sufficient for a family of four, as well as reducing working hours to 40 hours per week to give individuals more time for family life and child-rearing. These changes, if adopted, could help alleviate some of the pressures that urban families face and encourage higher birth rates.

In addition, offering support for child-rearing, such as affordable childcare services, tax benefits, and family-friendly workplace policies, could make a significant difference in enabling families to have more children without compromising their financial or career aspirations.